Prop bet #1: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (Game 1)
+130 at bet365
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels play a doubleheader today in the Bronx and my MLB picks like Aaron Judge to start the scoring early.
What more can be said about Judge? Well, let’s go over it one more time. He is an alien from some planet where all they do is mash baseballs.
The betting favorite to win the American League MVP Award enters today hitting .322 with an AL-leading 1.157 OPS, 41 home runs, and 103 RBI. It is only August 7, by the way. So, Judge is basically on a perpetual heater. That said, he’s on even more of one right now, hitting .485 with a 1.691 OPS, six dingers, and 14 RBI over his last nine games.
Today, it is poor Davis Daniel who will be thrown to the wolves today. The Angels prospect is making his fifth start of the season, and the 27-year-old right-hander has had some mixed results.
Daniel has sandwiched two good starts with two bad starts. The good ones, however, have come against the Detroit Tigers and the Colorado Rockies. Overall, he is pitching to a 4.04 expected ERA while surrendering a .280 opponent expected batting average. Both would be well below the league average if he qualified.
Judge has at least one RBI in six of his last nine games and I love him to drive in another one in Game 1 of this doubleheader at +130.
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Prop bet #2: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
+130 at bet365
Oneil Cruz is coming off a tough night, going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts as the Pittsburgh Pirates dropped the rubber match of their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
But last night aside, Cruz has been mashing in the second half and I like him to get back on track in tonight’s series opener against the San Diego Padres.
The Buccos behemoth of a shortstop has been doing it all, hitting .300 with a .937 OPS, which includes 10 extra-base hits, while driving in 12 runs and scoring 10 times over 15 games played since coming out of the All-Star break.
Tonight, he'll dig in against Padres starter Michael King. The right-hander is pitching well, but he relies mostly on his four-seam and sinking fastballs, throwing them more than 50% of the time, which plays right into Cruz’s hands.
Cruz has a .310 expected batting average and a .616 expected slugging percentage vs. fastballs this season.
I’m betting Cruz is a big part of the Pirates' run production tonight and goes Over his 1.5 hits + runs + RBI prop, which is giving us great value at +130. It's also a prop he has cleared in nine of his last 16 games overall.
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Prop bet #3: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases
+140 at bet365
While the Los Angeles Dodgers are still the betting favorites to win the 2024 World Series, it’s clear the Philadelphia Phillies have been the best team in baseball this season. And to hammer that point home, the Phillies have taken four of the five meetings with the Dodgers this season.
There are a few reasons for that. One, the Phillies have a huge edge in pitching. Second, even though the Dodgers are considered a juggernaut, their lineup is very top-heavy with Philly looking more dangerous 1-9.
That said, it’s not like the Phils can’t match the Dodgers' top-end talent. Bryce Harper is quietly having another MVP-caliber season. The two-time MVP enters tonight's matchup hitting .277 with a .911 OPS, which includes 25 home runs and 69 runs batted in.
Harper has also busted out of a mini-slump since the All-Star Game. The Phillies slugger is 7-for-17 with two doubles and a dinger over his last four games and now gets a juicy matchup against Dodgers starter Gavin Stone.
The 25-year-old right-hander has struggled with his consistency this season. Stone is pitching to a 3.99 expected xERA while surrendering a .262 expected batting average to opposing hitters. Those rank in the 49th and 25th percentile among MLB pitchers.
And even though it’s a small sample size, Haper has gotten the better of Stone going 2-for-2 with a double and a walk in three plate appearances. That’s good for a .625 xBA and a .877 xSLG.
I’m not sure why we’re getting this price on the Over 1.5 total bases for Harper tonight, but I love it, and so do our Covers Prop Projections, which have this as a five-star play.
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